ОЦЕНКА РЕЗУЛЬТАТОВ ВНЕШНЕГО ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЯ НА ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ПОСТПЕРЕСТРОЕЧНОЙ РОССИИ

Translated title of the contribution: Assessment of External Impact Results on the Demographic Development of Post-Perestroika Russia

Валерий Александрович Черешнев, Геннадий Павлович Быстрай, Александра Владимировна Васильева, Иван Александрович Лыков, Евгения Владимировна Шилкова

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Contemporary problems of Russian demographic development and their origins are under the authors attention. Two main hypotheses explaining positive dynamics of reproduction population in the 2000s: 1) self-development of demographic system within second demographic transition; 2) high efficiency of state regulation. Basing on the carried-out analysis we conclude that dynamics of birth and mortality rates observed during the post-Perestroika period was mainly caused by external impact on demographic system of Russia. It is offered to carry out a numerical assessment of such influence with the help of modernized Hurst method. Applying it to the pre-reform period data the expected trajectories of birth and mortality rates reflecting development of reproduction processes in Russia during the post-Perestroika period on condition of lack of external impact on demographic system were constructed. Comparing the actual dynamics with expected dynamics of population reproduction for the post-Perestroika period, we conclude that if the negative impact of social and economic transformations of the 1990s on demographic system of Russia had not taken place, «the Russian cross» would have been postponed only until 1994. Thus the adaptation period to negative external impact at mortality is much longer, than at birth rate. Also we conclude that activization of population policy in Russia after 2006 has had a positive effect on both birth and mortality rates, but «human losses» from social and economic shocks of 1990s have not been compensated yet
Translated title of the contributionAssessment of External Impact Results on the Demographic Development of Post-Perestroika Russia
Original languageRussian
Pages (from-to)154-168
Number of pages15
JournalВестник Забайкальского государственного университета
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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  • 05.21.00

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