ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РОССИИ

Translated title of the contribution: FORECASTING DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA

Геннадий Павлович Быстрай, Александра Владимировна Васильева, Иван Александрович Лыков

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Contemporary problems of Russian demographic development and their origins are under the authors attention. On the basis of probability distribution function restoration modeling of inequilibrium potential functions of indicators of population reproduction with the aim of definition of the state of social and demographic systems local and global sustainability and probability evaluation of birth increase and death decrease in Russia is performed. With the help of modernized Hurst method the time of reliable prediction is calculated and forecast curves of demographic development of Russia are built. Basing on achieved results evaluation of attainability of the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation until 2025 target indicators is conducted.
Translated title of the contributionFORECASTING DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA
Original languageRussian
Pages (from-to)61-72
JournalВестник УрФУ. Серия: Экономика и управление
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 2012

GRNTI

  • 06.00.00 ECONOMY AND ECONOMIC SCIENCES

Level of Research Output

  • VAK List

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'FORECASTING DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this