ПРОГНОЗ ВОСПРОИЗВОДСТВА НАСЕЛЕНИЯ РОССИИ

Translated title of the contribution: Forecast of the Russian population reproduction

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Abstract

The article considers contemporary problems of the demographic development of Russia and their causes. It identifies two main hypotheses explaining the population growth from the early 2000s and the decline in mortality from the mid-2000s: self-development of the demographic system within the frames of the second demographic transition and high efficiency of the state regulation measures. In accordance with them there was substantiated the necessity of developing two versions of fore-cast of the demographic development of Russia. Using the modernized Hurst method the authors constructed forecast curves of the Russian population reproduction for the period till 2030 with allowing some time for a reliable projection and a minimum time for forgetting the initial conditions. Comparison of the forecast versions made it possible to find out the main causes of the improvement of the demographic situation in Russia in the 2000s: the increase in birth rates from the early 2000s was rather the consequence of the formerly postponed births than the effect of the Government measures for overcoming the demographic crisis, and the decline in mortality rates from the mid-2000s is rather the result of the Government measures for overcoming the demographic crisis than the effect of self-development of the demo-graphic system. The obtained results confirm the standpoint that the State regulation of the demographic situation in Russia should be first of all aimed at improvement of health and raising life expectancy of the population.
Translated title of the contributionForecast of the Russian population reproduction
Original languageRussian
Pages (from-to)18-32
Number of pages15
JournalНародонаселение
Issue number4(66)
Publication statusPublished - 2014

GRNTI

  • 06.61.00

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  • VAK List

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