ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ МЕЖОТРАСЛЕВОГО КОМПЛЕКСА

Translated title of the contribution: Econometric modeling and forecasting of economic security of the cross-sectoral complex

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Importance The article unfolds capabilities of econometric models to forecast the economic security of a cross-sectoral complex.
Objectives We formulate the definition of cross-sectoral complex, overview the principal methods of econometric modeling and forecasting of trends in regional sectoral markets. The article indicates the main components of the economic security in the cross-sectoral complex and analyzes how economic security constituents influence the integral indicator.
Methods The research is based on the methodology for forecasting structural, spatial and timing trends in cross-sectoral complexes, including new and specified modeling and forecasting methods.
Results The article defines the terms cross-sectoral complex, economic security of the Russian cross-sectoral complex. We prove the economic security level of certain enterprises depends on changes in the network chain. We assess the effect of networked production enterprises on the construction sector.
Conclusions and Relevance Setting up a large-scale simulation model is the most complicated approach to forecasting the economic security of the cross-sectoral complex. Econometric modeling and forecasting procedures help construct, assess and make decisions with big non-linear data. The system of non-linear equations can be simultaneous, while containing dynamic and lagging data. Econometric modeling facilitate automated computations of any derivatives needed for assessment and modeling purposes.
Translated title of the contributionEconometric modeling and forecasting of economic security of the cross-sectoral complex
Original languageRussian
Pages (from-to)1020-1033
JournalНациональные интересы: приоритеты и безопасность
Volume14
Issue number6 (363)
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

GRNTI

  • 06.00.00 ECONOMY AND ECONOMIC SCIENCES

Level of Research Output

  • VAK List

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