ВЕРОЯТНОСТЬ КОМПЬЮТЕРИЗАЦИИ ПРОФЕССИИ И ЕЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ НА ЗАРАБОТКИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ЦИФРОВИЗАЦИИ РЫНКА ТРУДА

The study aims to test the hypotheses about the effect of digitalization on the labor market in Russia for the period of 2003-2018. The authors analyze the two key factors for labor market transformation in face of the digitalization associated with the increasing probability of computerization for a number of routine professions and digital polarization. The research methods are the following: linear regression analysis using Mincer-type models, in which logarithm of earnings is dependent variable. In comparison with previous researches, the scientific novelty of the study is variable added to the model that reflects the probability of computerization of profession. In addition to that, the authors present for the first time the evidence of digital polarization of the labor market in Russia. Such polarization is reflected in simultaneous increase in the number of professions, which are more influenced by computerization, and professions, which are based on the complex, abstract, non-routine objectives that cannot be fully computerized. The results of the study demonstrate the significant negative effect of the probability of computerization of professions on the earnings during the whole period of the study. The shown effects of digital polarization indicate about the significant gap between the level of computerization probability in the majority of professions that can become the problem for structural transformation of the national labor market. The results of the study can be applied in practical use for monitoring of professions that are under the threat of digital automatization in the Russian labor market, as well as for substantiation of additional investments in the human capital.