РАСШИРЕННЫЙ МНОГОФАКТОРНЫЙ МУЛЬТИФРАКТАЛЬНЫЙ МЕТОД СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ

Resultado de pesquisa: Articlerevisão de pares

Resumo

The article presents a new method for multifractal multi-dimensional prediction of the nonlinear socio-economic systems. The method is built on the basis of the modernized method Hurst. Are given three main hypotheses and assumptions underlying the model of reliable prediction of the evolution trajectories of socio-economic systems at various levels with a dynamically changing hard-deterministic fractal space-time structure. The main theorem of forecasting is formulated. The advantages of this method compared to the classical forecasting methods and modernized Hurst method are shown. As part of the method the concept of economic risk is expanded and the method of its evaluation on the basis of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation is described. The possibilities of its application in the prediction of complex socio-economic systems are discussed.
Idioma originalRussian
Páginas (de-até)72-89
Número de páginas18
RevistaВестник кибернетики
Número de emissão2(18)
Estado da publicaçãoPublished - 2015

GRNTI

  • 06.61.00

Level of Research Output

  • VAK List

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