SYNERGETIC METHOD OF A QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING OF ECONOMICTIMES SERIES

Результат исследований: Вклад в журналСтатья

Аннотация

In the article, a synergetic method of the economic time series forecasting on the basis of the modified method of Hurst is discussed. It is a new nonlinear method of predicting the development of economic systems according to time series on macro- and mesolevels. The main theorem underlying the forecasting method is formulated and strictly proved: for a chaotic series of a particular length it is possible to specify a time interval where the series is reliably predicted with the Hurst exponent more than 0.5. The examples of the fractal characteristics’ calculation and the forecasting taking into account time of reliable forecast of the socioeconomic indexes’ behavior - oil prices, natural gas prices, the Dow Jones index, the «euro-dollar» prices, the Gross Domestic Product, and some other indicators at the regional level are given. All calculations are carried out by means of the specialized software product upgraded for the task solution set in this article.
Язык оригиналаАнглийский
Страницы (с-по)250-259
Число страниц10
ЖурналEconomy of Region
Номер выпуска4(36)
СостояниеОпубликовано - 2013

ГРНТИ

  • 06.00.00 ЭКОНОМИКА И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ

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